O Putinovi

O Putinovi

 

"Who is mister Putin?" Kdo je pan Putin? -  památná věta, kterou pronesli udivení zahraniční novináři v reakci na oznámení Jelcinova nástupce. Tato otázka trápí Západ už 13 let a stále ho nemohou podle svých měřítek, včetně morálních, nijak zařadit a je pro ně záhadou. Pravičák? Levičák? Konzervativec? Liberál? Těmito otázkami se západní analytici trápí už nejeden rok a nemohou tomu přijít na kloub, protože Putin operuje nad touto úrovní.

 

A tak, v jaké situaci se Putin nachází? Jaké jsou jeho cíle? Proč neohlásí KSB (Koncepce sociální bezpečnosti) veřejně? Na tyto a další otázky se pokusím částečně odpovědět.

 

Pro pochopení kroků Putina je třeba znát několik principů, podle nichž pracuje: vždy dělá více než říká, vždy mluví pravdu (ve smyslu, více či méně detailní adekvátní popis-hodnocení reality, ale ne vždy říká vše, co ví), a v chápání reálných procesů řízení převyšuje o několik lig všechny ostatní tzv. veřejné politiky okolo glóbu. Zná koncepci a dostatečně obecnou teorii řízení a umí je aplikovat, z jeho kroků lze vysledovat, že ji aplikuje v rámci možností v praxi, ale bez veřejného ohlášení (což je mimochodem správně, dokud jsou média spíše nástroji mediokracie a hlásnými troubami západního establishmentu, veřejně ohlašovat KSB nelze, vše by překroutila k nepoznání a nic dobrého by to nepřineslo).

 

V Rusku se vždy špatné či tvrdé zákony obcházely tak, že se neplnily. Byl to princip sebezáchovy. Jinak řečeno, v Rusku budou zákony pracovat jen tehdy, pokud budou spravedlivé. Za Jelcina byla situace přibližně následující - Jelcinovy kroky vláda, "elita"(oligarchové) a vyšší úřednický korpus podporoval, ale národ je bojkotoval. Nyní, Putinovy kroky vyšší úřednický korpus, "elita" a větší část vlády bojkotuje, ale národ je podporuje. Tím je v podstatě řečeno to hlavní v otázce "who is mister Putin", ale nebude na škodu to trochu rozvést. Viktor Jefimov to vyjádřil po volbách v roce 2012 zhruba následovně: "Unikátní shoda, ve které je Putin trnem v oku jak Západu, tak domácí ruské "elitě", včetně tzv. patriotické, mluví o tom, že se v jeho osobě tentokrát národ nezmýlil."

Krátce: předtím Jelcin + "elita" proti národu, dnes Putin + národ proti "elitě".

 

Jak se Putin dostal k moci?

 

V roce 88-89 vyšel hollywoodský blockbuster "Hon na rudý říjen", patřičně nabitý celebritkami. Zápletka je asi následující: velitel ruské jaderné ponorky se rozhodne zradit a vzdát se američanům i s ponorkou, nakonec se mu to podaří, a během děje kapitán (Sean Connery) s pomocníkem zabije důstojníka jménem Putin, který si zradu kapitána uvědomil a chtěl ho zastavit.

Ten film je zajímavý z několika hledisek, jméno Putin se v něm neobjevilo náhodou. Film je pokusem o matriční řízení budoucích událostí, ale matrice v něm je založená na lži, čímž neměla ani teoretickou šanci zapracovat (magnetohydrodynamický pohon z filmu je jen fantazie, na ruských ponorkách nikdy nebyl, naopak ponorkám třídy Tajfun američané říkali kvůli jejich hlasitosti "řvoucí krávy" ). Fakt existence toho filmu (symboliky je v něm více) však vypovídá o tom, že někdo, na druhé straně barikády, už tehdy viděl potenciál a možnou budoucí roli Putina a pokusil se ji na matriční úrovni neutralizovat. V realitě ale zapracovala jiná matrice, která naopak Putina "náhodou" dostala přesně tam, kde měl v daný okamžik být. Tuto "náhodu" (ve skutečnosti projev kladné matrice ruského národa, kolektivního nevědomí, chcete-li) popsal nedávno v diskusi Taurus v odpovědi na dotaz, jak probíhalo předání moci Putinovi:

Budu se hlavně držet toho, co řekl o tomto Pjakin.
Putin v r.1999 pracoval jako pomocník primátora Petrohradu Sobčaka, t.j. patřil ke křídlu Pitěrských, před jmenováním pracoval chvíli jako šéf ochranky Jelcina (tehdy byly 2 hlavní mocenské skupiny - moskevská "semja" okolo Jelcina a petrohradský klan, pozn.).
Situace v Moskvě a ve vládě byla taková, že moc ve státě vlastnila skupina 7 oligarchů, která se přikrývala věčně opilým Jelcinem. Tomuto klanu se říkalo "semja"(rodina). V tomto klanu byla hodně zaangažována i dcera Jelcina se svým manželem.
K roku 1999 touto "rodinou" Rusko už bylo zbaveno suverenity a byly připraveny podmínky na rozčlenění Ruska na několik nezávislých států - Chasavjurtský mír v Čečně, a dokonce v některých autonomních oblastech byli natištěny vlastní peníze (uralský frank např.).
Klanu "semja" bylo jasné, že až národ pochopí, jakou hru s nima sehráli, tak veškerý hněv se vyleje na ně a na Jelcina.
Začali usilovně hledat "obětního beránka", za vlády kterého proběhne rozpad Ruska. Bylo přijato rozhodnutí, že veškerou vinu za stav věcí svalí na petrohradské křídlo, které v té době reálnou moc ve státě nemělo.
Putina doporučil Berezovský, jako skromného a nevýrazného pracovníka. Nejdříve ho prosadili do funkce předsedy vlády, a potom po pár měsicích mu Jelcin předal moc.
Fjodorov třeba říká opak. A to, že Jelcin poznal v Putinovi schopnosti státníka a proto ho prosadil do funkce prezidenta.
Vzhledem k tomu, že Jelcinova "rodina" měla největší "zásluhu" na přípravě země k rozpadu, přikláním se spíše k verzi Pjakina, a to, že Putin byl vybrán jako "obětní beránek". Dokonce Berezovský několikrát prohlásil, že Putin byl jeho největším životním omylem a nejhorším rozhodnutím. Čímž přiznal, že se v osobě Putina šeredně zmylil, a že ten nesplnil úlohu, která se od něho očekávala.
Takže shrnu. Putin dostal zemi, která byla zbavena suverenity, bylo téměř všechno rozkradené, armáda nefungovala, zbraně sešrotované (ponorky, lodě, zastavena výroba). Národ byl v naprosto nesvépravném postavení - měsíce až roky se nevypláceli mzdy, důchody, soc. dávky, a navíc byly připraveny podmínky k rozčlenění země. Rusko jako země, mělo HDP na úrovni Dánska a žádné postavení ve světě. Zemi v takovém stavu mohl převzít jenom sebevrah. Putin to udělal.

Tolik Taurus, a pro doplnění můj tehdejší příspěvek:

Jelcin byl loutkou (zástupcem) moskevského klanu oligarchů, kterému se říká "Rodina" (Sem'ja), když měl na kahánku a nenávist národa k Jelcinovi a tomu klanu byla maximální, rozpad Ruska už byl na spadnutí a některé oblasti už měly vytištěné vlastní peníze a nikdo nevěřil, že Rusko přežije, tehdy jelcinův klan vymyslel operaci: Jelcin určí zástupce petrohradského klanu jako svého nástupce a lidé si to vyřídí s ním a s petrohradským klanem, a jelcinům klan vyvázne +- nepoškozený a uchová si moc. Tím někým byl Putin, který to vzal, přestože to byla sebevražedná mise - tehdy 99% procent analytiků předpovídalo, že ten, na koho Jelcin ukáže jako na svého nástupce je politická mrtvola, a časem i skutečná mrtvola. Odhady analytiků na to, jak dlouho Putin vydrží ve funkci, nebo vydrží obecně, se pohybovaly od několika měsíců do jednoho roku.

 

Na Putinovi je zajímavé to, že výhrady až nenávist vůči němu sjednocují v Rusku jak prozápadní liberály, tak "skutečné patrioty". Putin je také trnem v patě všem bez výjimky silovým a vlivovým strukturám Západu. Prostou matematikou lze dojít k tomu, že se "skutečnými patrioty" něco nebude v pořádku. Formulku ze začátku článku by tedy sledovalo rozšířit - Putin a národ proti věrchušce Západu, "elitě" a mnoha pátým kolonám. Putina lze hodnotit buď podle toho, co o něm kdo říká, nebo podle výsledků jeho práce a podle toho, co říká a dělá on sám (což vyžaduje dostat se přes výraznou mediální blokádu a zkreslování, alespoň co se týká tzv. mainstreamu, v Rusku, zde i na Západě). Doporučuji držet se druhé metody. Pozice "skutečných patriotů" a prozápadních liberálů v Rusku by se dala charakterizovat asi tak, že cokoliv Putin udělá, je to vždy špatně. Příklad nedávných výtek "skutečných patriotů" Putinovi, volně přeloženo: "Vezměte si například Sýrii! Assad, to je státník, ne jako Putin. Sýrie si dovolí postavit se USA a říct - my jsme suverénní země a budeme bojovat až do konce, a USA porazíme. A my?..." Myslím že o podobné úrovni chápání není třeba příliš diskutovat.

Co se týká principu "po ovoci poznáte je", Putin převzal Rusko na hraně kolapsu, rozvrácené a na hraně rozpadu. Mnoho oblastí už mělo natištěno vlastní peníze, například uralský frank, kterého bylo tolik, že se dodnes prodává v numismatických prodejnách. A vzpomeňte, že tisk vlastních peněz jednotlivými oblastmi bylo finální stádium rozpadu SSSR. Krátce, od té doby Putin udělal Rusko prosperující zemí, ke které nyní vzhlíží s nadějemi půlka světa, a oprávněně. Dál "po-západnímu" už to jednoduše nejde, chápe to čím dál více lidí a má už současného stavu plné zuby.

Je také pozorován zajímavý jev, kdy Putin často říká věci naprosto na rovinu a otevřeně, ale jen málokdo chápe, co vlastně říká, hlavně z řad žurnalistů a tzv. "expertů". Slova slyší, ale význam nechápou, pro stromy nevidí les.

 

Putin ví, že ne v síle je pravda, ale v pravdě síla. A používá to - díky tomuto, ale nejen, prakticky neutrpěl v zahraniční nebo globální politice žádnou větší porážku. Vždy dosahuje svých cílů, a také vždy drží slovo a co řekne, to i realizuje (dalo by se říct i obráceně - nahlas řekne jen to, o čem je přesvědčen, že tomu může dostát). Všimnětě si - v politice Putin neustále opakuje svým partnerům i protivníkům vlastně jedno a totéž - bavme se otevřeně, nazývejme věci pravými jmény. Protože Putin může hovořit veřejně pravdu, ozvučit své cíle, i když ne vždy říká vše najednou, kdežto jeho protivníci si za žádných okolností nemohou dovolit říct veřejně pravdu, své skutečné cíle (například "podporujeme a vyzbrojujeme žoldáky-fanatiky, kteří v Sýrii provádějí genocidu křesťanů"). Na setkání G8, kde Západ plánoval Putina zlomit v otázce Sýrie, Putin prohlásil: "Jak můžete podporovat lidi, kteří zabíjejí a pojídají své protivníky? To jsou vaše hodnoty, to jsou evropské hodnoty, které hájíte?". A lídři, "elita" Západu svírala pěsti, až jim žíly bělely, nejradši by se na tiskovce do země propadla, ale namítnou nic nemohli, protože Putin řekl pravdu a všichni to věděli. Výsledkem, G7 před Putinem sklonila hlavu a Obama jel domů jak spráskaný pes, aniž dosáhl buďto on nebo Západ čehokoliv z toho, co chtěl.

 

"Vedení Ruska" je široký pojem, je třeba rozlišovat, protože jsou tam různé vrstvy navzájem v opozici: je Putin, je vláda, a je úřednictvo a byrokracie (tzv. "činovničestvo"). Putin a ruská vláda není jedno a totéž, ve vládě z většiny dosud sedí ideoví odpůrci Putina, liberálové atd. v čele s Medvěděvem. Je Putin, je vláda a je státní aparát - velmi často jde vláda a/nebo úřednictvo přímo proti krokům Putina. Podle nedávné statistiky se 80% procent úkazů prezidenta nevyplňuje. Putin se musí povětšinou uchylovat ke globální politice, kde jeho kroky mají zpětný vliv na vládu a státní aparát, čímž částečně kompenzuje bojkotování a sabotáž svých kroků z jejich strany.

Nedávno unikl záznam z vládního jednání, který neměla spatřit veřejnost, kde rozhovor probíhal zhruba následovně: - Putin "své" vládě: tak chystáte se vůbec pracovat, nebo ne? A na výtku, že 80% procent úkazů není plněno, Surkov odvětil - všechny úkazy byly splněny. Putin: a po podstatě, ne formě? Surkov: -po podstatě se tady už 15 let nic nedělá...

Což ilustruje skutečnou morálku liberálů v Rusku. Ale reálné výsledky hovoří o tom, že se přeci jen něco dělá, ale jejich zásluha to není.

 

Dnes je už zřejmé, že Putin musel uzavřít při svém nástupu k moci s oligarchy nějakou nepsanou dohodu, jednalo se zřejmě o nějaké záruky bezpečnosti a nějaké další dohody. Proto měl v některých věcech svázané ruce. Vnímavým dal ale tento rok najevo, že své závazky považuje za splněné a dále bude "padni komu padni" (to oznámení pro vnímavé byl rozvod Putinových, sdělení probíhalo v symbolické rovině). Nepřímou indikací budiž to, že podle kuloární informace Putin vyhlásil oligarchům a korupci tento srpen svého druhu válku, když vydal příkaz, že vyšetřovací orgány nižší hierarchie nemusí nadále při své práci konzultovat s nadřízenými, pokud se chystají obvinit výše postavené osoby. Což je stav, který byl v historii Ruska dvakrát - v roce 37 a v padesátých letech před smrtí Stalina.

Putin se zcela správně vyhýbá prudkým (rychlým) manévrům v řízení (vysvětlení viz Dostatečně obecná teorie řízení), za což se na jeho hlavu snáší velká část kritiky. Jedná ale naprosto správně, prudké manévry vždy hrozí ztrátou kontroly s nepředvídatelnými následky, včetně katastrofických. Každý rozumný člověk na řídícím postu se prudkým manévrům vyhýbá. Pokud na vás leží odpovědnost za 150 milionů lidí a půl planety ve vás vidí naději na lepší budoucnost, platí to x-násob.

 

Diskusní téma: O Putinovi

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