O možné asociační dohodě Ukrajiny a EU

Na téma možného podpisu Ukrajinou asociační dohody s EU (nutno říct, že zatím není s podpisem nic na 100% jistého). Nejedná se členství, ani o status kandidáta na členství, pouze tzv. asociační dohodu, což je 1500 stránkový dokument srozumitelností srovnatelný s formálně nepřijatou Evropskou ústavou, a obsahem má nejblíže k bezpodmínečné kapitulaci - práva žádné, jen povinnosti, hlavně poslouchat rozhodnutí, na které Ukrajina nebude mít žádný vliv. Text asociační dohody na Ukrajině skoro nikdo nečetl, podobně jako v případě projektu EU ústavy, jejíž text také skoro nikdo nečetl. Znění bylo na Ukrajině navíc drženo do nedávné doby v tajnosti. Mimochodem, Turecko má podepsanou obdobnou asociační dohodu s EU už více než 40 let a stále není členem.

 

Volba EU-"integrace" (uvozovky záměrné, neb Ukrajina by byla v roli kolonie, odbytiště německého zboží a zdroje bílého masa) je pro Ukrajinu ekonomická sebevražda. Pokud Ukrajina podepíše, nebude to ale prohra Ruska, prohra Války v žádném případě, prohra bitvy možná, ale zda to nebude promyšlený gambit, ukáže až budoucnost. Na druhou stranu, Putin nevynakládá žádnou větší snahu zabránit Ukrajině podepsat, nemluvě už o přesvědčování. Má to logiku, pokud Ukrajinci integraci s Ruskem nechtějí, nemá smysl je "táhnout". Nechť si nejprve vyzkouší "objetí Západu" a teprve až si oni sami ve své většině ujasní, kterým směrem leží jejich budoucnost, půjde budovat integraci na konstruktivních základech. Putinova pozice vzhledem k otázce asociace Ukrajiny s EU je zhruba následující - informuje: "když vy uděláte tohle, my budeme muset udělat tohle. Když vy uděláte tento krok, bude to mít tyto následky, když uděláte jiný krok, bude to mít tyto jiné následky." Dle mého názoru, pozice korektní.

S otázkou cel a toho, o čem mluví článek "EU vyzvala Rusko, aby nekladlo překážky integraci Ukrajiny, Moldávie a Gruzie", jde o následující: Rusko dopředu říká, že Ukrajina může být buď v ekonomickém bloku eurasijské Celní unie, nebo v ekonomickém bloku EU. Nikoliv v obou zároveň. Jde o to, že při otevření hranic EU-Ukrajina a současném celním neuzavření hranic (EU+Ukrajina) vs (Celní unie) by nejen evropské zboží zaplavilo ukrajinský trh, ale hlavním cílem je spíše reexport evropského zboží do Ruska pod rouškou ukrajinského zboží, tj. za podmínek, za jakých nyní exportuje do Ruska Ukrajina. To by byla faktická ekonomická likvidace Ruska (a Běloruska, Kazachstánu), což by mohl připustit jen vlastizrádce. Pozice Putina a Ruska je tady naprosto v pořádku a jediná možná, a hlasy z EU ohledně "ruského nátlaku" na Ukrajinu apod. jsou jen útok a šum v informační rovině.

 

Asociační dohoda s EU jde naprosto proti zájmům Ukrajiny, jedná se o ekonomickou sebevraždu. Mimojiné je tam bod, že Ukrajina na své náklady musí předělat celou železniční síť na evropský rozchod 1435mm. Hodně štěstí. Náklady na přizpůsobení ukrajinského průmyslu normám EU a předělání železnic se odhadují na desítky miliard USD, a to i tamními stoupenci "evropské volby". Rusko ještě před půlrokem dalo Ukrajině další půjčku stovek milionů USD "jen tak", bylo to takové, další v řadě, gesto dobré vůle. Jak je vidět, nepadlo na úrodnou půdu. Ochotu ukrajinského vedení podepsat lze vysvětlit asi jen scénou z "Kmotra", kde je "vzájemně výhodná dohoda" domlouvána tak, že mafián drží člověku u hlavy pistoli a oznamuje "buďto na papíře bude váš podpis, nebo váš mozek".

Spousta ukrajinských podniků žije jen exportem do Ruska, hlavně vysokotechnologických. Jakmile se tato možnost uzavře, většina vysokotechnologických odvětví ukrajiny končí. A obnovit je bude velmi obtížné - "vstupné hřivna, výstupné 100 hřiven a zpět do klubu nebereme". Politici to vědí.

 

"Politoložka" Lidie Ševcová z Carnegie Moscow Center tvrdí: „Rusko prohrálo bitvu o Ukrajinu. Pro Vladimira Putina je to katastrofa."

Pokud Ukrajina podepíše, nebude to katastrofa pro Putina, ale hlavně pro Ukrajinu a nejvíc pro samotný národ, "elita" se svými miliony v západních bankách nějak přežije, ale lidé poznají na vlastní kůži co to znamená "objetí Západu". A Putin pravděpodobně najde asymetrickou odpověď (pokud ji nezná už nyní), se kterou EU nepočítá a na níž nebude mít odpověď. EU nemá zájem na prosperující Ukrajině, potřebuje jen nová odbytiště zbytečné a nadbytečné produkce. 

 

Diskusní téma: O asociační smlouvě Ukrajiny s EU

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