Globální politika: 7.2., olympiáda v Soči a dluhový strop

Globální politika: 7.2., olympiáda v Soči a dluhový strop

16.2.2014

Pro připomenutí – v září 2013 se odehrálo drama okolo zvednutí dluhového stropu USA, senát schválil provizorní zvednutí o částku, která kryje potřeby do 7.2.2014 a bylo naplánováno, že k tomuto datu musí dojít k nové dohodě o zvednutí dluhového stropu.

Pár slov k tomu, proč je o dluhovém stropu USA v poslední době tolik slyšet a proč se kolem toho odehrává takové drama (na podzim 2013 se odehrávalo veřejně, nyní tiše). Z finančního hlediska to nemá význam, protože schopnost USA někdy splatit pouhý 1 bilión (1000 miliard) státního dluhu je naprosto stejná, jako splatit 10 nebo 20 biliónů – zcela nulová. Je to jakoby pacient, který z objektivních důvodů potřebuje k životu stálou transfuzi čertsvé krve, měl naopak darovat krev v několikanásobném objemu, než obsahuje jeho tělo – je úplně jedno, zda by měl darovat 1x nebo 17x tolik, než má, je jasné, že toho není schopen, ani kdyby chtěl.

O čem to tedy je a proč dříve otázka dluhového stropu nebyla nikdy na pořadu dne? Administrativa USA neměla žádný problém zvýšit během desetiletí státní dluh z jednoho bilionu na 16 bilionů USD, ale když měl být zvednut na 17 bilionů, „najednou“ se objevil problém. Jde o to, že regionální elita USA se pokouší přes dluhový strop a následný technický default, zhroucení dolarové pyramidy, udržet si status jediné velmoci a uvrhnout zbytek světa do chaosu, dokud má velkou vojenskou převahu. Detailnější vysvětlení mechanizmů je níže v textu.

Plán nevyšel, zvednutí dluhového stropu, které schválil senát 12.2, bylo ve své podstatě aktem kapitulace USA jako velmoci. Možná to zní paradoxně, že regionální elita USA ("jestřábi") chtěla opak, aby ministr financí USA 7.2. vyhlásil technický default (státní bankrot). Ten v ten den ale místo toho poslal kongresu dopis, který přeložený do lidštiny zní asi takto: nedělejte blbosti a schvalte zvýšení dluhového stropu, jinak se s vámi nikdo mazlit nebude. Jde o to, že Jacob Lew (min.fin. USA) reprezentuje ve vládě USA nadnárodní řídící struktury, nikoliv regionální elity USA. Tady jde jedna z těch dělících čar mezi klany a zájmy, nejde ale mezi strukturami, ale po linii konkrétních lidí ve strukturách, kteří jsou reprezentanty těch či oněch zájmů. Jedna a tatáž struktura tak může v čase (nebo i paralelně) pracovat na zájmy odlišných skupin, v tomto konfliktu například jednou na zájmy regionálních elit USA, podruhé na zájmy nadnárodních elit, které USA využívají (nebo snaží se) pro realizaci svých zájmů (globální prediktor – GP). V minulosti byly často zájmy GP a regionálních elit USA téměř totožné, hodně z událostí poslední doby má své kořeny v tom, že se to změnilo - nyní stojí do značné míry v opozici. Vypadá to, že 2014 bude rokem kolapsu USA, možné občanské války, každopádně však koncem jejich existence v roli a podobě, v níž jsou většinově přijímány dnes.

Regionální elita se však do 7.2. velmi snažila svou kapitulaci zvrátit všemi možnými prostředky, celý cirkus na Ukrajině je jen a jedině o tomto, vyvolat tam občanskou válku, která by se přelila do Ruska, následné oslabení Ruska či destrukce a řešení problémů USA na úkor lidských a nerostných zdrojů Ruska (vsuvka – od nástupu reaganomiky - „prosperity na dluh“ - měly USA rozpočet s přebytkem jen v 90. letech, kdy řešili své problémy na úkor Ruska, potažmo východního bloku jako celku, a jeho nerostných a jiných zdrojů - „kapačka“ směrem do USA a Západu)

To se jí nepovedlo, což je v důsledku i k jejímu dobru, protože by to pravděpodobně vedlo ke třetí světové válce horkého typu. Mentalita regionální elity USA dnes pracuje v režimu "krysa zahnaná do kouta". Další věc, o kterou se pokusili, bylo zabránit olympiádě teroristickým útokem, měli to připraveno, viz letadlo z Ukrajiny, které nakonec přistálo v Turecku. Ono ani tak nešlo o to, aby někde něco vybuchlo, stačilo by, kdyby ten únosce přinutil letadlo přistát v Soči, a mediální pozornost celého světa by se soutředila na pokus o teroristický útok namísto zahájení Soči, čímž by byl efekt olympiády velmi oslaben. To by ale vyžadovalo, aby po přistání uneseného letadla byla Evropa mediálně plně na straně USA, čemuž bylo zabráněno publikací nahrávky s Nuland, kde posílá EU do pr..... Přesně 7.2. Vzhledem k tomu, že USA mají šifrování docela kvalitní, je možné, že Putinovi tu nahrávku poskytl něčímu rukama (NSA?) GP, který má zájem na potopení USA, i když možná je i druhá varianta, že jsou schopni to rozkódovat sami. Za pozornost stojí, že nahrávka byla definitivně dřívějšího data, někdy z konce ledna (rozhovor byl o nabídce vládních postů Janukovyčem opozici), ale publikována byla až v den zahájení olympiády.

Nyní k tomu, proč zvednutí dluhového stropu znamená kapitulaci USA, a vyhlášení platební neschopnosti (technický default) by znamenalo jejich triumf a návrat do role jediné velmoci. Jde o to, že peníze jsou zhuštěnou informací o výrobně-produkčně-prodejních řetězcích, a nyní je většina světového obchodu stále realizována v dolarech. Téměř všechny státy světa mají také tzv. stabilizační fondy, které ovšem ve skutečnosti jsou nástrojem stabilizace USA a dolarové pyramidy, nikoliv daných zemí. Prostředky tam jsou totiž převážně uloženy v dluhopisech USA. Při vyhlášení technického bankrotu USA 7.2. by to zasáhlo v prvé řadě všechny ostatní, USA samotné nejméně. Například Rusko má dnes ve stabilizačním fondu desítky miliard dolarů jako aktiva, to by se přes noc proměnilo v 0, bezcenný kus papíru. Nemluvě o Číně. My bychom také přišli o pár stovek miliard (v Kč). Dalším důsledkem by byl rozpad výrobně-produkčních průmyslových řetězců, které závisí na dolaru jako platidle. Shrnuto, byl by to těžký úder na ekonomiky všech zemí kromě USA, ve světě by vznikl chaos a Americe by zůstala dosud nejsilnější armáda na světě. Důsledky myslím není třeba moc rozvádět.

Díky zvednutí dluhového stropu k tomuto nedojde, a k likvidaci dolarové pyramidy dojde později, až budou ostatní země připraveny a výrobní řetězce budou nezávislé na dolaru. Podle všeho k tomu dojde letos na podzim nebo příští rok. Za tím účelem jde nyní pod pokličkou intenzivní příprava všech hráčů na svět bez dolaru, viditelným příznakem nyní je, že se uzavírají bilaterální měnové swapy v bezprecedentním rozsahu a země přecházejí v nejrychlejším možném tempu na mezinárodní obchod v čemkoliv, kromě dolaru (barter, clearingové účty, zlato, yuan, rubl, ...).

Dalším nepřehlédnutelným signálem kapitulace USA a změny poměru sil v globální politice je patrolování iránské vojenské lodi podél amerických břehů, což bylo oznámeno před pár dny. Írán hlídá Ameriku... symbolický význam nelze přecenit, i když samozřejmě z vojenského hlediska je to bezvýznamné. Ale o to zde nejde, je to signál chápajícím... Myslím, že kdyby mi před rokem, dvěma někdo řekl, že v únoru 2014 bude íránská armáda patrolovat břehy USA, byl bych velmi skeptický.

ps.: časový horizont některých událostí možná naznačuje tento graf – porovnání Dow Jones v letech 1928-29 a 2012-2013.


 

Diskusní téma: Globální politika: 7.2., olympiáda v Soči a dluhový strop

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